South African Voters Condemn Russia’s Invasion and Favour Ruling Coalition from 2024 - Poll
The ruling party of South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), is at odds with the South African electorate through its failure to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its inability to manage the domestic crises facing the country. This is according to a survey conducted by The Brenthurst Foundation at the beginning of November and published last week.
143 nations have condemned Russia’s “illegal annexation” of Ukraine but many African nations, including South Africa and neighbouring Zimbabwe, have abstained from such UN resolutions. The South African government has repeatedly refused to condemn the invasion and, extraordinarily, has also participated in joint military training exercises with Russia since the invasion took place.
The ANC’s Youth League has been very active in supporting Russia. They visited occupied Ukraine as an observer of Russian-run regional referendums. The UN also passed a resolution condemning these forged referendums, and the South African delegation once again abstained.
In spite of this consistent line from the top of South African politics, voters do not appear to support the government’s stance. 74.3% of respondents indicated their belief that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “an act of aggression that must be condemned.” Only 12.7% saw it as an “acceptable use of force.”
While respondents were split on the degree of support that should be offered, only 7.9% expressed a belief that South Africa should “offer no support” - the stance currently being taken by the ANC. 49.9% of respondents suggested South Africa should either “offer military support” (27.3%) or “offer diplomatic support” (22.6%), while 32.6% indicated the country should at least “offer moral support.” Even amongst ANC voters, 74% of respondents wished to condemn the invasion at least.
International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor insisted that South Africa will continue to express its “independent, non-aligned views”. However, this stance has left some international allies perplexed. EU ambassador to South Africa Riina Kionka, for example, tweeted that she was “puzzled” by the stance as “RSA sees itself and is seen by the world as a country championing human rights, international law and the rule of law”.
Despite South Africa’s historic non-alignment policy, and its close cooperation with emerging BRICS economies, South Africans appear to identify strongly with western countries above BRICS countries. When asked which country they would choose to emigrate to if they were to leave South Africa, 51.9% chose western nations while only 4.1% said Russia, 3.6% said China, and 2.4% said India.
This is just one of a number of areas where the ANC appear to be alienating voters. Indeed, 51.5% of South Africans surveyed blame the ANC government for the problems facing the country. This is compared to just 8.8% who place the responsibility on the legacy of apartheid, 7.4% who blame racists, 3.3% who blame the BBE elite, and 0.6% who hold the Democratic Alliance responsible.
Shockingly, more than 80% of all respondents see South Africa as a country “going in the wrong direction”, even amongst ANC supporters this number holds at 66%. When asked to identify the biggest problems facing the country jobs (30.7%), corruption (24.9%), and rolling blackouts (16.8%) were the most popular responses.
In light of this, data indicates the ANC is likely to lose its majority in 2024. Should the ANC’s 46.7% survey support be translated into national election results, South Africa would likely enter its first-ever democratic coalition.
This appears to be the preferred result for the public, with 80% indicating they wish to see a coalition government run the country.
However, with the DA polling at 24% - a 3.2% increase from 2019 but still 22.7% lower than the ANC – and the EFF at 10.7%, an ANC-led coalition appears likely. The ANC and EFF have attempted to cooperate in Johannesburg but aside from the practical issues that would need to be overcome, it does not seem such a marriage would be popular. Just 18.7% of respondents indicated they supported the idea of an ANC-EFF coalition.
A coalition of opposition parties (22.8%) or an ANC-DA coalition (21.1%) are the most popular options but the ruling ANC is expected to favour a coalition with centrist parties such as the IFP above the alternative options.
Even while opposition parties fail to pick up the electoral slack it is clear that South Africans no longer view the ANC as fit to resolve the problems facing the country and that a moral and political miscalculation has been made by continuing to abstain from condemning Russia’s hostile actions in Ukraine.
Image via Unsplash