South Africa: China's Critical Minerals Pause Could Change 2025 Mixed Fortunes for SA Mining Sector

Mining data revealed another obstacle in the challenging start to 2025, with production 5.6% lower in the first two months compared with the same period in 2024, but critical minerals may yet save the day in the wake of Beijing's export pause.

Mining data revealed another obstacle in the challenging start to 2025, with production 5.6% lower in the first two months compared with the same period in 2024, but critical minerals may yet save the day in the wake of Beijing's export pause.

Outgoing Sibanye-Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman gave a bullish assessment of the platinum group metals (PGM) sector at Mining Indaba 2024, declaring it ripe for investment. "I think we've become overly negative about the decrease in the basket price," he told Daily Maverick, then basing the decline on temporary destocking after the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered supply shortage fears.

Fourteen months later his prophecy has failed to materialise, and he is almost out the door of the house that he built. South Africa's PGM sector, in fact, now faces a deeper crisis that threatens the stability of one of the country's key mining pillars.

In a strange twist, Donald Trump's trade war with China could create new strategic opportunities. Beijing's tightening export controls on critical minerals have squeezed global supply, creating potential openings for alternative producers such as a resource-rich country at the southern tip of Africa.

China controls reshape global supply chains

Recent customs data reveals Chinese...

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